Following Russia’s invasion, the war in Ukraine has been ongoing for almost three years, with both sides suffering heavy losses. During this time, the U.S government has been one of Ukraine’s main supporters, providing extensive funding and weaponry to aid in the country’s defense. However, with the administration now changing hands, Russia sees an opportunity to seize a decisive advantage, both in its goal to capture Ukraine and in its broader ambitions to undermine Western hegemony internationally.
Currently, the Ukraine war remains at a relative stalemate, with both sides exchanging small territorial gains and losses over the past several months. However, with the arrival of the Trump administration, and continued financial support for Ukraine now in doubt, it’s very likely that this could change in the imminent future. Trump has recently claimed that the war is “destroying Russia” from within and that Putin needs to seek a deal to end the war immediately (2025, Walsh). However, if anything, the arrival of Trump will make Putin less likely to seek out those options. This is because with no guarantee from Trump, and EU countries unable to bear the heavy financial burden, it’s unclear how support for Ukraine will continue. Without support from other countries, Ukraine will be unable to sustain its defenses, making it only a matter of time before Putin is able to seize victory.
To say that Putin is happy with how the current situation has changed would be an understatement. Winning the war for Russia would be an opportunity to turn a conflict that has exposed Russia’s weaknesses, to a decisive show of strength. Beyond the main goal of capturing Ukraine, winning the conflict would also go a long way in terms of undermining the power of the United States internationally. It would be an embarrassment for the Trump administration and would serve to demonstrate how America’s influence has weakened in recent years. Of course, all of this could change if Trump reestablishes consistent funding for Ukraine. However, considering Trump’s history, this is unlikely to happen. Ukraine will fall, and the responsibility will lie directly with the Trump administration when that happens.
References:
Walsh, N. P. (2025, January 21). Putin’s “not doing so well,” says Trump in unusually critical remarks on Kremlin leader. CNN. https://edition.cnn.com/2025/01/21/europe/analysis-trump-putin-ukraine-intl-latam/index.html